How To Avoid Losses In Stock Market Trading

Profitable Trading


Introduction:

Trading is mostly an art, the more you practice, the more you evolve. This is the game of probability not the accuracy. You cannot be accurate in predicting the market. When you analyse the trade, you analyse for the highest probability of winning. This means you still have a probability to lose, does not matter even its low.
The second most important thing is – market is always uncertain. There is always a possibility of overnight unfortunate major event which can affect the market drastically and erode your capital overnight. Therefore, never expose your hard-earned savings of life to trade in the market. You trade with money only which you can afford to lose.

These are some of the valuable lessons I learnt during my successful and profitable trading journey through the experience.

1. Risk Management
This is the crucial factor to make you profitable in the market. Without this you can win some trades, but in long run you cannot be profitable without a proper system of risk management.

  • StopLoss – The key to this game is to keep your losses small. Just note here, I am not saying that you should not make loss and always win. There is no way to make money without taking the loss. But your risk should be defined by you, not by the market. It’s not the market which should give you the loss, but you should decide that how much you want to give it to the market. So, the idea is to give less and earn more. And you can achieve this by defining your risk through StopLoss.

    Why the StopLoss is important for the profitable trading in stock market?
    If the StopLoss get hit, what that means? It means either of the two is true – 1) there is something wrong with the stock, or 2) your analysis to select the stock was not correct. Therefore, for either of the case, you must exit from that trade without the second thought. Remember, you can always re-enter if its again going into your favour after re-analysing the trade. This way your probability to win and becoming profitable is still high. But if you will not exit at that moment when the StopLoss git hit, and you will hold the trade in some kind of anticipation or biasness, there is high probability that you will be trap in a big loss, which could be very difficult to recover.
    Why? Let’s understand this with this example, why it’s important to cut your losses short.
    Let’s assume you buy a stock at a price of $100. It fell and corrected by 50%, so now it drops to a price of $50.  Now, from this price of $50, if this stock must return up to $100, it must regain it more than 100%. So, if it gains by 100% from $50, it will only achieve the price of $75. So, this illustrates this, once you lost the big chunks of money, it’s not that easy to gain it back after the stock renounce.

  • Fund Allocation / Basketing – Its always better to plan at least 10 stocks in the portfolio for a better risk diversification. If you have a large capital, you can add more to the list and diversify a bit more. But just be cognizant of the portfolio size, which should be manageable well and tracked regularly. I have divided my trading capital into 10 parts based on my projected portfolio size of 10 stocks. My allocation for each stock is only 2-3% of the total trading capital. Why it’s important? Let’s say, you hold a stock in your portfolio and due to some kind of unpleasant news or uncertain even in that company, suddenly there could be a drastic fall in the stock prices overnight. In this like of scenario, the first thing is you will not be impacted emotionally, as this stock is just 2-3% of your holdings. You can compensate this loss easily though other assets or stocks in your portfolio. Remember, trading or investing is not a one-night game. Here, only slow and steady wins the race. To win the game you must be in the game “for longer”.

  • Position Sizing – Always decide the position sizing for the trade based on the size of stop loss. The StopLoss size should be fixed for all your trades.  My trades are 4-8 weeks long and I keep the StopLoss of 5% for each trade which is generally 4-8 weeks long, against the expected target profit of 15% at least.  So, your position size for this trade should be such that you should not lose more that 5% of the allocated capital for this stock. Avoid taking extra leverage which is beyond your control.

2. Consistency
Remember trading is the game of probability, one can’t be 100% accurate in predicting the moves. The winnability is always in the form of probability, where you target the trade having the higher probability to win, but at the same time it has a lower probability to lose as well. So, losses are inevitable in the stock market. The only strategy to win here is, the profit should be higher than the losses for the number of trades we make. And that can be achieved by better risk to reward ratios (RR) for example 1:2, 1:3 and so on.. (i.e. the Rewards should always be higher for every respective risk we take.
The Risk to Reward Ratio that works best for me is 1:3 (3x returns against $1 risk). If you want to follow this ratio, a quick tip here. This does not mean that you must apply this risk-reward ratio for every trade, but you must analyze first whether the trade you are planning fit into this ratio. Your chart pattern should reflect that there is a high probability to achieve the 3X gain against the 1x risk. Otherwise just skip the trade.

Having said that, the question remains same – what is mean by the consistency in this context and why is it important?
I do trade every day, this simply means, I try to look for the right opportunity every day in the market, if I find the right trade which fit in my system, I take it, otherwise I just skip the trade. So, you must be consistent in terms of being active. If not, there is high chance of missing the opportunity. Let’s understand this with this example. Say you make 100 trades in a month. Assuming the probability of 60% winnability, means you will win 60 times out of 100 trades. Let’s say you are active for only 10 days in the market. There is a change that those 10 days could be your bad days where you got only the loosing trades. And when you are off the market, then in those days you missed the golden opportunities. Therefore, trade consistently, otherwise you will miss the opportunities. There are fixed number of days in a Month, and hence the fixed number of opportunities. If you lose any of those trading opportunity, then your Winning ratio may get disrupt.

Word of Caution – Trading consistently definitely does not mean to overtrade. You must take a break and avoid the overtrade.

3. Develop Mindset
Let me share you a reverse technique that always works for me. Generally, while taking a trade, we decide a StopLoss, and then we focus and wait to achieve the target price to make the gain.

I apply slightly different mindset technique here – Assume the StopLoss as the target in the mind. Immediately after taking the trade, I assume the StopLoss as my target in my conscious mind. My all focus would be that the price should hit my StopLoss and I should exit this. If that happen, I act quickly to exit.

Confused …?
Let me explain this. You come to trading and decided a trade after your analysis. Once you placed your trade in the system, your mind should not be overwhelmed or occupied with the thought of making profit. But you should come with the mindset that what percentage of money you wish to give to the market, in other words how much risk are you ready to take for this trade. Lock that amount which you are ready to give to market in your mind. That will be your StopLoss. And that StopLoss will be your target to focus on. Keenly wait to get your StopLoss hit and exit as and when it gets hit. Believe me this works, it helps you to stay calm and positive for your next trade. Keeping your emotion in control will save you from the revenge trading. Just play with this mindset and don’t care about profit. At the end, you are going to be profitable.
What would happen in another scenario? Let’s assume it does not hit the stop loss and stock priced moved to be profitable to become 1:1. At this stage the trade is in your favour, so still you don’t need to focus on the targeted profit, rather take this opportunity to save your risking amount. For this, you should trail the StopLoss to the entry price. Let’s wait to achieve the target now.

4. Trailing the profit
Once the targeted profit achieved there could be different strategies.

  • Book the profit and exit the trade completely.
  • Book partial profit (say 50%) and keep trailing the profit with proper StopLoss.
  • Exit partially just to take out your original invested amount, and then leave the remaining until the stock is moving in your expected trend.

In my personal experience, first option is suitable, if you are beginner. Whereas last option is suitable for holding the stock for long term, this is how multi-baggers are found.

5. Take a Break
Trading is all about mind game. If your StopLoss continuously hitting, its time to take a break. Either the timing in the market is not favourable or there is something you don’t know.  Probably you are failing continuously to identify the “Area of Value”. Area of Value is the area of confluence on the chart, where the right entry point forms. So, It’s time to learn the new pattern of the market. Invest time to learn and analyse your shortcoming. Master the skill of proper Entry and Exit.

There are many free courses out there over the internet to learn these skills. I, myself, particularly find the videos by Rayner Teo is very helpful for learning to identify the “Area of Value” and “Confluence Zone” on the Chart. It helped me a lot to improve my Entry and Exit timing.
Do check this out if this is helpful for you.
Rayner Tao’s video series – https://www.youtube.com/@tradingwithrayner/videos
Web – https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/
This is not a paid promotion. I find this learning useful for my trading. You can find any other free courses/videos on the YouTube that works for you and easy to understand. What is important is to learn Price Action and to identify the ” Area of Value” and “Confluence Zone” on the Chart.

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